Does technology really grow exponentially?

Does Technology really grow exponentially? 

Let’s take a look back at some major technology adoptions over recent decades—or perhaps not so recent, depending on your generation. The time it takes for new technologies to be widely adopted by the general public varies. Some innovations, like cell phones and smartphones, were adopted quickly, while others—like telephones and washing machines—took much longer.

Faster Adoption

  • Microwaves and Cell Phones: These technologies saw relatively swift adoption, with studies suggesting they reached 50% household penetration within 5–6 years.

  • Smartphones: The first smartphone appeared in 1994, but it wasn’t until the iPhone boom in 2008 that they became mainstream.

  • Generative AI: Generative AI has achieved a 39.5% adoption rate after just two years, compared to 20% for the internet after two years and 20% for PCs after three years.

Slower Adoption

  • Telephone: Invented in 1876, the telephone took nearly a century to reach widespread household adoption.

  • Stove, Washing Machine, Dishwasher: These household appliances took decades to become commonplace in homes.

  • Internet: Born in 1969 as a niche academic network, the internet took more than two decades to become widely accessible and adopted.

Factors Influencing Adoption

  • Relative Advantage: Technologies that offer significant improvements over existing solutions are adopted more quickly.

  • Compatibility: Innovations that integrate easily into people’s lives and existing systems tend to see faster adoption.

  • Complexity: Simpler technologies are generally adopted faster than more complex ones.

  • Trialability: Technologies that are easy to test or experiment with tend to spread more quickly.

  • Observability: The more visible and understandable a technology is to others, the quicker it tends to be adopted.

What’s Next?
What do you foresee happening over the next two years?
Will we have artificial super-intelligence by 2027, as some experts predict?
Will we commute to work in flying cars by 2030?
...Or will there even be jobs left for us to go to work for?  No one will be flipping burgers for sure, once "Flippy" comes out!  


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